Market Commentary
Considered observations on the markets, the economy, and the moments that move them, written for long-term investors who value clarity over noise.
Municipal Bond Outlook: Why Carry Is the Strategy
August 10, 2026 | LPL Research
For municipal investors, a Fed on hold is a better environment than it sounds. First, it anchors the front end of the curve, which reduces reinvestment-rate uncertainty for laddered portfolios and short-duration strategies. Second, it keeps money market yields elevated but no longer rising. Trillions remain parked in money market funds earning after-tax yields that, for investors in the top brackets, no longer clear inflation by a meaningful margin.
Constructive on Stocks in the Second Half as AI Debate Continues
August 3, 2026 | LPL Research
Stock market gains so far this year have been driven by earnings, not by higher valuations. In fact, based on the next 12 months price-to-earnings ratio (P/E), the S&P 500 is about 11% cheaper today than it was at the start of 2026 — the index P/E has fallen from 22.2 to 19.7 (source: FactSet). The debates around how much capital investment is too much and whether the hyperscalers will be able to generate acceptable returns (as we wrote about in the July 27 Weekly Market Commentary) were on full display over the last two weeks and will continue.
Has Stock Market Exuberance Become Irrational?
June 29, 2026 | LPL Research
The second quarter is winding down and what a quarter it has been with the S&P 500 up 12.6% quarter to date, while the Nasdaq-100 and Russell 2000 are both up over 20%.
Kevin Warsh Could Shake Up the Fed
June 22, 2026 | LPL Research
A hawkish debut. At his first Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, Chair Kevin Warsh paired a hawkish, minimalist tone — tersely emphasizing price stability — with the launch of five task forces to review key aspects of Federal Reserve (Fed) policy.
Introducing the IPO Class of 2026
June 15, 2026 | LPL Research
The U.S. initial public offering (IPO) market appears to be entering one of its most consequential periods in years. After a long drought following the 2021 issuance boom, a healthier macro backdrop, improved risk appetite, and a long queue of mature private companies have reopened the new-issue window.
Is Bad News Already Priced into the Bond Market?
June 8, 2026 | LPL Research
Since the onset of the Iran conflict (through last Friday’s close), the U.S. Treasury curve has experienced a meaningful bear flattening with front end yields rising more than back-end yields. The 10-year Treasury yield has increased by approximately 60 basis points (bps), while the 2-year yield has risen by 77 bps.
Add Context, and Stock Market Valuations are Fair
June 1, 2026 | LPL Research
Before digging into what we think this stock market is worth, it’s important to recognize that valuations have not historically been good timing tools. There is essentially no correlation between valuations and where stocks will go over the subsequent year. However, P/Es have value as a basic valuation tool, especially as it pertains to predicting long-term returns.
Shifting Leadership in Global Growth
August 17, 2026 | LPL Research
Just a few weeks ago, markets were pricing in several rate hikes over late 2026 and early 2027 as investors became increasingly convinced that Federal Open Market Committee Chair Kevin Warsh would maintain a highly hawkish stance. Then came the July payrolls report, followed by the July inflation report.